Brain Emulation's Future and Its Impact on AI Safety
In brief
- Whole brain emulation (WBE), the process of replicating a human brain in a computer, is at least decades away even without advanced general AI (AGI).
- Experts estimate it could be achieved by the mid-2040s, but this would only simulate the brain for a few seconds-not long enough to be useful.
- Achieving WBE after AGI is possible, but it will take months of preparation and testing, likely delaying its practical use.
- The cost of WBE is another hurdle.
- Each emulation requires significant computational power, costing tens of thousands of dollars per hour.
- This makes emulations far more expensive than AI systems or human labor for the same cognitive tasks.
- Additionally, there's no clear evidence that emulations are inherently safer or more trustworthy than AI, casting doubt on their role in reducing existential risks during the transition to AGI.
- Investing in WBE before AGI may not be cost-effective, with estimates suggesting a low return on investment.
- The potential benefits of WBE are narrow and depend on unlikely scenarios, such as a global moratorium on AI development.
- As AI technology advances, the focus should shift to understanding when and how WBE might contribute meaningfully to safety efforts in the future.
Terms in this brief
- Whole Brain Emulation (WBE)
- A process where a human brain is recreated in a computer to replicate its functions and consciousness. It's seen as a future technology that could simulate human thought but is still decades away from practical use, even with advanced AI systems.
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